The government should consider a “Plan B” for the electric van market in the likely event that sales figures stay well below official targets, says FleetCheck.
Peter Golding, CEO, points out that year-to-date sales penetration of 9% is far short of the Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate objective of 16% – and that the figure rachets up to 24% in 2026.
“Fleet resistance to electric vans remains high for reasons of range, payload, charging speed and charger availability that are not easily solved. It’s not like the electric car market where lower prices and higher incentives can be used to overcome consumer resistance – electric vans are simply not fit for purpose for many operators.
“There is no step change improvement in electric van technology on the horizon to remove these inherent problems and we hear from many of our fleet customers that as new diesel van availability decreases, they are simply planning to keep their old vehicles on the road as long as possible.”
Peter said that electric van adoption rates by fleets were only creeping forward and there were likely to be substantial shortfalls against government targets both this year and next.
“The government appears to be setting itself up for failure and it seems to us that a Plan B is needed in the instance that the ZEV Mandate for the van market simply doesn’t work.
“There is little point in having a scheme designed to promote zero emissions that is leading fleets to dig in their heels and hang onto their existing diesels for longer. At some point, we have to acknowledge the current approach isn’t working.”
Further low emissions technologies could be added to the scheme to reduce van emissions over time, creating a bridge to a zero emissions electric van future, he suggested.
“There’s a danger the government is letting the great be the enemy of the good. Few people believe it is desirable to keep making diesel vans that are bad for air quality and contribute to global warming, but there are other low emissions options besides electric vans.”
He pointed to China’s New Emissions Vehicle (NEV) scheme, which allows manufacturers to use a range of technologies in order to meet low emissions targets, as the potential model for an alternative.
“The Chinese approach is to set emissions targets and let the engineers decide which solution will work best. As a result, they are using not just battery electric vehicles but range extenders, plug-in hybrids with significant electric range and even fuel cells.
“A multi-level approach could be adopted by our government as a Plan B with inducements for fleets to adopt low emission vans using these technologies alongside zero emissions models, which would continue to enjoy higher incentives. That could create substantial improvements in overall carbon emissions and allow fleets to keep operating efficiently.
“Our view is very much that van operators need to be taken on a journey that leads from diesel models to intermediate NEV-style options and then move over to electric vans as the technology improves.”
